Armed conflict in NW, SW: Census won’t reflect true population of Anglophone regions!.

News of this year’s census, to hold over 20 years after the last census of November 2005, has sparked fears that the population of the conflict-hit North West and South West Regions would be undercounted. The development, political watchers say, could further see Anglophones being marginalised in the national data representation.

 Anglophones say they fear without accurate demographic, social, and economic trends that form the backbone for vital national planning, political representation, and resource allocation for equitable and sustainable national development, the census findings would amount to a bleaker future for their Regions.

Keen analysts say a census in the current context, where an armed conflict has been raging for the past nine years with entire communities uprooted, puts to question the credibility and fairness of the process in Anglophone Regions. 

To further buttress their fears, observers point to statistics from credible international rights organisations, which indicate that the armed conflict in Anglophone Regions of the country has already killed over 6,000 persons. 

They also add to hundreds of houses burnt by both military and non-State armed individuals, since the start of the armed conflict in 2017, which has forced millions to flee their communities to seek refuge as Internally Displaced persons, IDPs, in Francophone Regions.

Aside the millions of IDPs, others have also raised worries on the situation of the over 80,000 refugees from the two Regions, while thousands continue fleeing both Regions to seek asylum in other countries in Europe and the Americas. 

The millions displaced from the two Regions, observers are categorical, will play negatively on the statistics of the population in Anglophone Regions. 

Such, it is feared, would further be to the disadvantaged of the two Regions. This, they say, will be visible in the sharing of the national cake through data-backed evidence-based decision-making planning, and resource allocation fordevelopment.

Concerned Anglophones say such a census, under a conflict situation, in the two Regions already battling decades of marginalisation, could inflict more harm than good, particularly for Anglophones whose voices are increasingly silenced in the national polity. 

Arguments are also being raised on the legitimacy of the census itself, given that a substantial portion of the population might perceive the process as biased, be it intentionally or not.

This, others say, could also deepen the mistrust Anglophones already have in the Francophone-dominated country. They cite the ongoing conflict already rooted in grievances over marginalisation and treatment of Anglophones as second-class citizens. 

Others have gone as far as evoking the moral dimension of the census, stating that proceeding with the head count knowingly, which excludes or undercounts displaced population, raises concerns about equity and justice. 

Inaccessibility of Amba hotspot communities 

Even with the millions displaced from the two Regions, many have been posing questions as to how Yaounde intends to conduct census in communities which are hard to reach because of worsening insecurity. 

For close to a decade now, many parts of the North West and South West Regions have remained insecure and inaccessible. 

Other inhabitants of the two Regions, it should be said, are still in hiding in the bushes or in areas that census workers may be unable or unwilling to reach. 

Many say conducting an accurate census in such an environment would be more than challenging as the activity depends on stability, and the physical presence of populations in their habitual residences. 

This, many fear, would significantly undercount the population in Anglophone Regions. 

The underrepresentation, many are also indicating, will have serious consequences as the data directly informs political representation.

Risk of weakening political voices of Anglophones 

Worth recalling is the fact that the results of the November 2005 census, released five years after, in April 2010, which put the official population at slightly over 19 million, sparked criticisms in various quarters.

Many raised worries about inconsistencies in the figures, challenging what was attributed to many Regions and municipalities. 

Others had accused government of tampering with the figures for political motives.

Similar fears are already being expressed in the planned census. Those fearing a repeat of the inconsistencies of 2005 census, say the timing of the head count appears to be politically influenced.

Those with such thought pattern say authorities have carefully planned the census to make sure the current reality doesn’t affect forthcoming legislative and municipal elections.

This, they say, is given the fact that the census had initially been announced in 2015 but pushed to December 2023 before it was again postponed to 2026. 

Political analysts further say if the population of Anglophone Regions are undercounted, their already limited political voice could be further diminished. 

NW, SW set to miss out on new administrative units 

To further buttress their points, analysts point to the December 2, 2025, note; in which the Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, asked his collaborators to make proposals for new administrative units to be carved out from the current administrative configuration.

The minister, in the note, had indicated that proposals for new Subdivisions and Divisions must be based on population size, and availability of existing infrastructure to host administrative officials and other services.

Many areas of the North West and South West Regions, which had for long been ripe for such a proposal before the crisis started, in terms of population and size, risk being diverted to other areas due to the outflux of many indigenes and the burning down of vital infrastructure in such localities.

Underrepresentation in Parliament 

The envisaged creation of new administration units, others say, would also mean increase in the number of Parliamentary seats and constituencies. 

Parliamentary seats that would have been meant for the two Anglophone Regions, fears are now rife, could be skewed away to Francophone Regions, where IDPs are based whereas they will eventually return to their communities once there is complete normalcy. 

No hopes for Anglophone Regions?

Despite the fears, there are others who still think the hybrid nature of the census would enable government to make efforts to ensure it is representative to an extent. 

Experts say specific strategies are said to be on the drawing board to be developed to access risky communities in the two Anglophone Regions. 

The pilot tests conducted from October 20 to November 5, 2025, in areas including Bamenda I, Fongo Tongo, Buea, and Mora, others say, was meant to address some of the security challenges. 

Also, the methodology for the fourth census is projected to be a hybrid, with digital approach involving tablet-based data collection, satellite imagery, and aerial surveillance, particularly for hard-to-reach areas.

This, those in support of the operation say, would ease the counting of all residents, including millions of refugees, internally displaced people, and returnees, with assistance from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, UNHCR.

Unlike traditional censuses that rely solely on door-to-door enumeration, the hybrid census, it is being said, would combine on-the-ground data collection with modern tools such as satellite imagery, administrative data, surveys, and statistical modelling. 

The approach, others justified, is especially important in areas affected by conflict or difficult terrain, where full coverage can be challenging.

This article article was first published in The Guardian Post Edition No:3736 of Thursday March 19, 2026