French gov't falls, consequences on Cameroon!.

Bayrou was the fourth Prime Minister in two years under President Emmanuel Macron, whose second term in office has been overshadowed by political instability.

“Everything, positive and negative, adds up to one question: The question of spending and debt,” Bayrou said in the National Assembly. He added that France is “drowning in a tide of debt”.

He also spoke of a country on "life support" and addicted to spending. Shortly before he losing the confidence vote in parliament, he warned that the country's fiscal woes would put its "very survival" at risk.

He had called the confidence motion in a bid to pressure lawmakers to support his plan to narrow France’s 2026 deficit to 4.6% of economic output from an expected 5.4% this year. His proposal included €44 billion of spending cuts and tax hikes.

But opposition leader, Le Pen, on Monday repeated her call for a new election, saying: “Do not expect the National Rally Group to follow you in your fiscal and migratory craziness, in your petty ideological biases that prevent you from seeing the reality of the country”.

Simply put, France's government has for decades spent more money than it has generated. As a result, it has to borrow to cover its budget.

According to the government, public debt stood at €3,345 billion, or 114 percent of GDP early this year, which economists say is equivalent to almost €50,000 per French citizen.

Last year's budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP and this year's is not expected to be 5.4%. So, public debt will continue to grow as borrowing covers the shortfall.

France, like many developed nations, is facing the demographic headache of an ageing population- fewer workers being taxed and more people drawing the State pension. 

Bayrou is among the French politicians who want to slash the deficit by redefining generous social programmes such as State pensions.

Two years ago, France raised the pension age from 62 to 64 for those born in 1968 or afterwards. Bayrou has warned that the sense that French workers can stop working during their early 60s is now out of date.

Last year, the European Commission put France in the naughty corner, forecasting France was heading for a government deficit of 6.2% of GDP, more than double the recommended level for Eurozone countries.

Government debt in France is running at around €3.35 trillion and rising as economists have warned that the debt could reach 116% of GDP by the end of this year.

Monday's collapse of the French government over its inability to bring austerity measures through parliament is raising fears that the debt of the EU's second-largest economy is spinning out of control. What happens next is uncertain. Economically, it's about money and the country's towering debt burden.

According to economists, in absolute terms, no EU country holds more consolidated national debt than France. Sovereign debt has climbed to around €3.35 trillion- about 113% of Gross Domestic Product, GDP, with the figure expected to rise further to 125% by 2030. To meet the EU's target of reducing the deficit to 3%, drastic savings are unavoidable.

However, since cuts are currently politically untenable, financial markets have responded with higher risk premiums on French bonds. While German bonds carry an interest rate of about 2.7%, the French government needs to pay close to 3.5% interest for its debt.

Friedrich Heinemann, an economist with the ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany, was asked by reporters after the French vote. Should we worry about the stability of the single European currency, the euro, if the finances of the eurozone's second-largest economy slip out of control?

His answer: "Yes, we should be worried. The eurozone is not stable at this point...but we have to ask where this is heading if a big country like France, which has seen a steadily rising debt ratio in recent years, now also faces further political destabilisation," he told DW

The Guardian Post understands, it's been a long-standing political dilemma for successive French governments that whenever they propose austerity measures or economic reforms, opposition parties cry foul.

As the French Prime Minister told parliamentarians before he was booted out with a vote of no confidence, "you have the power to bring down the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality. Reality will remain relentless: expenses will continue to rise, and the burden of debt, already unbearable, will grow heavier and more costly".

That would play out against the FCFA, with prospects for devaluation and even the Euro. That again brings up the usual debate about the future of the CFA and countries like Cameroon.

In a context of growing doubts about the CFA franc, Jean-Claude Kassi Brou, Governor of the Central Bank of West African States BCEAO, told Jeune Afrique last month that: "We have not received any official request to leave" the CFA franc zone.

The statement came in a particularly tense climate, marked by uncertainties and harsh criticism from the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States- Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger who have multiplied attacks against the monetary system inherited from French colonisation, while questioning their participation in regional monetary integration projects.

Their shifting of economic cooperation from France towards Russia and China has also contributed to France's poverty illustrated in debt woes.

The big question remains; will the Franc zone countries continue to save their money in the French treasury and suffer the consequences of exorbitant spending in France? 

Candidates for the October12 presidential election in Cameroon should answer the question.

This article was first published in The Guardian Post Edition No:3560 of Wednesday September 10, 2025